16 Dec

U.S. Green Building Council Names Award Recipients

first_imgOther award winnersOther projects recognized in the 2017 LEED Homes Awards were these:Project of the Year: The House at Cornell Tech, Roosevelt Island, New York, is a 26-story Passive House apartment building.Outstanding Single-Family Developer: Maracay Homes in Scottsdale, Arizona. The company has built more than 9,000 homes in Phoenix and Tucson.Outstanding Multi-Family Developer: The Hudson Companies Inc., which has completed more than 3,500 housing units in the New York metro area, including The House at Cornell Tech.Outstanding Affordable Project: Crescent Crossings Phase 1, Bridgeport, Connecticut, is a four-part project that is helping to transform a high-crime section of the city.Outstanding Affordable Developer Builder: Native American Connection, Phoenix, Arizona. The project offers high-quality, safe, and affordable apartments to both individuals and families. The U.S. Green Building Council has named a high-performance house in a Decatur, Georgia, historic district as its 2017 Outstanding Single-Family Project.The house will be familiar to Green Building Advisor readers. Carl Seville, who built and owns the 2,646-square-foot, two-story home, is a longtime GBA author who detailed the ups and downs of this home’s construction in a series of posts beginning in 2016.Seville is a principal at SK Collaborative, a consulting company that offers a variety of services revolving around green building. The house was designed by Thomas Bateman Hood Architecture in Carmel, California.Seville, a former remodeler, and his partner Abe Kruger offer consulting services to builders, architects, and remodelers. One service is certifying green buildings under a number of programs, including the U.S. Green Building Council’s Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED). The Historic Infill Home, as it’s called, is a LEED Platinum home that has won a number of other certifications and awards.“The Historic District Infill Home manages to fit seamlessly into a prestigious existing historic district while meeting the highest standards of energy efficiency and sustainability through its LEED Platinum certification,” the USGBC announcement said. “The 100 percent electric home employs state-of-the-art concepts in design, construction, and mechanical systems.”As Seville described in a 2016 post, the house came after two earlier attempts at construction on the site fizzled. Seville bought a 750-square-foot cottage on the property in 2005. His first attempts to win local approval for a new house on the property failed. Then, in 2013, after failing to get a mortgage from a local bank for a new house, Seville decided to remodel the 1925 cottage. The renovated cottage, protected by historic preservation rules, eventually became an accessory building on the lot when the new house was constructed. Work on the new house started in 2016.Seville started writing his blog series for GBA, the “Green Building Curmudgeon,” in 2008.“I’ve come to think of this project as a ‘stealth’ green home,” Seville wrote a year after moving in, “primarily because it doesn’t have the touchstone ‘green’ features people think about: solar panels, ground-source heat pumps, a heat-pump water heater or tankless water heaters, and maybe that key one, spray foam insulation.“It’s also a very traditional design which doesn’t seem to get as much attention as contemporary architecture these days,” he continued. “But I don’t care what people think about it. We are enjoying the house, the porch, and even the carport and driveway which, it ends up, is an awesome party space.”last_img read more

9 Dec

How to Play the Long Game

first_img“You’re an animal like the other animals or you’re something different, something higher, and known to be different and higher. Someone has to be the good guy.” Peggy Noonan, A Flawed Report’s Important Lesson, WSJ, December 12, 2014Some of your competitors will lie to win a deal. They will say whatever they believe their prospective client wants to hear, knowing it isn’t the truth. You may be frustrated knowing that they’re lying and winning.Some businesses you compete against will act immoral, and some will take actions that are illegal, all to make a buck. Their success may get a lot of press, and it might look pretty in the papers right now.Some of your competitors will speak poorly of you and your business to win an opportunity. You may be frustrated and angry to learn that a competitor is trying to make themselves look better by trying to make you look bad.Some people will tell their prospective clients what they want to hear in order to ingratiate themselves to that person. The would rather have their business than tell them what they really need to hear.None of these tactics are effective long term. In fact, over time these tactics undo those who use them. Someone may effectively lie to win a deal, but over time that lie will be exposed, and the person who lied will no longer be credible. People and companies that try to win by using tactics that are illegal or immoral get a different kind of press when these actions are exposed. Eventually, you are going to judged by who you are, not what your competitors say about you. And, eventually, your dream clients are going to need to know the truth about what they need to change and how much it is going to cost.You can’t control the tactics that other people or companies use to pursue and win new business. The only thing that you can control is who you are going to be. If you decide to be something different and higher, you will be known for being those things, even if it takes time for this to be known.Character is the long game. Who you are going to be has nothing to do with the decisions that other people make about who they are going to be. Your character is your business.Legacy is the longest of long games. The difference that you are going to make is solely up to you, and it has nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that other people aren’t considering their legacy. Your legacy is your business. Essential Reading! Get my 2nd book: The Lost Art of Closing “In The Lost Art of Closing, Anthony proves that the final commitment can actually be one of the easiest parts of the sales process—if you’ve set it up properly with other commitments that have to happen long before the close. The key is to lead customers through a series of necessary steps designed to prevent a purchase stall.” Buy Nowlast_img read more

9 Dec

A Hierarchy of Leadership Approaches and Their Consequences

first_imgLeadership is based on the ability to get the people you are leading to take action to accomplish specific goals. There are choices available to a leader to motivate their team to act. Some choices are healthier and more effective than others.Force: You might be tempted to think that force doesn’t belong in a leader’s toolkit, that it shouldn’t be in the range of choices available to a leader. But a leader may, from time to time, need to rely on force in emergency situations. If the threat is great and doesn’t allow for time, doling out orders and requiring people to respond might be the right choice. You may need to make people do what is necessary under extreme circumstances.This choice should be used only in the rarest of circumstances, and great care should be taken to ensure that it isn’t needed. The military needs this choice. So do the police and fire fighters. Business people almost never do.Threat of Force: The threat of force, demanding something be done or consequences will be forthcoming, isn’t a choice that should be made often or taken lightly. The price to relationships is too high and the effectiveness too low. Ultimatums are a horrible way to produce results, and long term, they destroy the team you lead. This is the choice of last resort, and should rarely ever have to be exercised.If you’ve gotten to the point where an ultimatum is necessary, you have made mistakes as a leader and allowed a problem to go unaddressed too long.Manipulation: Manipulation is another extremely negative choice. Unlike force, there is never a reason to use manipulation to produce results. It does tremendous damage to your relationships, and it demonstrates to your team that you want what you want, and you’ll make whatever Machiavellian moves necessary to get your result. Manipulation is the choice of the sociopath.Manipulation sits in the middle only because it is something less than force and to remind you that it is a choice you may unknowingly make . . . read on.Persuasion: You might be surprised to find persuasion so close to manipulation. It doesn’t carry the same baggage as “manipulation,” but the only thing separating the two is your intentions. Making a rational, reasoned argument to convince someone isn’t negative. But anything deceptive or self-oriented quickly transforms persuasion into manipulation. Persuasion, in the positive sense of the word, is a choice a leader will need available to her.You will need to make reasoned, rational arguments to persuade others as a leader. But there are better choices that will limit the amount of persuading necessary.Influence: Influence is better than persuasion. When you have influence, your relationship does the necessary work in helping you to achieve results through others. Your character makes it easy for people to follow your lead without your having to persuade, manipulate, or command them.When you have influence, you never have to worry about whether or not the people you are leading are doing what they are supposed to be doing; they wouldn’t do otherwise. They know you care about them, and they would never dream of letting you down.Inspiration: There is a higher choice than influence. That choice is inspiration. When you lead through inspiration, you help people find and develop into the best version of themselves. You help them find meaning in their work, and you help them identify their purpose. The more you lead from this choice, the less you need to rely on any of the other lesser, yet still sometimes necessary choices.When you inspire people, not only would they never let you down, more importantly, they wouldn’t let themselves down.The higher you climb on this spectrum, the greater your relationship will be with those you lead, the better your results, the greater and faster your growth, the more leaders you will create, and  the greater your legacy will be.last_img read more

29 Nov

Bellator begins yearlong heavyweight tournament at Forum

first_imgJohn Lloyd Cruz a dashing guest at Vhong Navarro’s wedding Slow and steady hope for near-extinct Bangladesh tortoises 2 ‘newbie’ drug pushers fall in Lucena sting Read Next Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. Typhoon Kammuri accelerates, gains strength en route to PH Chael Sonnen. APLOS ANGELES — Chael Sonnen has never fought as a heavyweight at any point in his long careers in wrestling and mixed martial arts. He’ll make his debut in the marquee weight class this weekend at Bellator 192 against Rampage Jackson, who outweighed Sonnen by a whopping 31 pounds on the scales Friday.Sounds crazy, right? Even Sonnen knows it.ADVERTISEMENT Globe Business launches leading cloud-enabled and hardware-agnostic conferencing platform in PH Lopez, Markkanen power Bulls to easy win over Hawks “It’s the only fair way to do things,” Sonnen said of the tournament format. “It’s just that in combat, we don’t have to do things fair. We can do things that are good for entertainment and good for business. In this case, (Bellator President) Scott Coker is risking everything. He doesn’t know what the biggest fights are going to be. He doesn’t know how it’s going to play out, but he said, ‘I’ll do it fair for a change.’ And here we are.”While the UFC waits for new stars to emerge — or for its biggest existing star to get tired of spending his boxing money in Ireland — Bellator is building its year around the tournament designed to crown its first heavyweight champion since 2016.The promotion is doing it with its usual mix of sports and spectacle, pitting veteran heavyweights against smaller, bulked-up stars closer to their prime, including Ryan Bader and Muhammed “King Mo” Lawal.It could be fascinating competition, or it could produce physical mismatches and lopsided decisions. Either way, Coker expects it to be compelling.“It just snowballed into something we needed to do,” Coker said. “We already had good heavyweights, and pretty soon we had eight marquee names. This was the thing that made the most sense, and it’s going to be an all-yearlong story line.”ADVERTISEMENT Brace for potentially devastating typhoon approaching PH – NDRRMC “I don’t totally know what I’m getting into, in fairness,” Sonnen said. “I’ve had workout partners that were heavyweights, but I don’t know what that power will feel like. I imagine I’ll move out of the way.”Sonnen just couldn’t resist the chance to chase the Bellator title belt in an eight-man tournament starting Saturday night at the Forum. The Heavyweight World Grand Prix will be the center of Bellator’s promotional efforts in 2018, showcasing a host of well-known MMA stars including Fedor Emelianenko, Frank Mir and Roy Nelson.FEATURED STORIESSPORTSWATCH: Drones light up sky in final leg of SEA Games torch runSPORTSLillard, Anthony lead Blazers over ThunderSPORTSMalditas save PH from shutoutBellator was founded a decade ago around the tournament concept, but strayed away from it in recent years to maximize its ability to stage big fights.The promotion’s return to something resembling its roots begins in Inglewood with the 40-year-old Sonnen against the 39-year-old Jackson, who tipped the scales at 253 pounds. To Sonnen, the excitement of the undertaking outweighed the obvious drawbacks in competition. MOST READ NEXT BLOCK ASIA 2.0 introduces GURUS AWARDS to recognize and reward industry influencers LATEST STORIES Trending Articles PLAY LIST 00:50Trending Articles00:50Trending Articles00:50Trending Articles01:29Police teams find crossbows, bows in HK university01:35Panelo suggests discounted SEA Games tickets for students02:49Robredo: True leaders perform well despite having ‘uninspiring’ boss02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games01:44Philippines marks anniversary of massacre with calls for justice01:19Fire erupts in Barangay Tatalon in Quezon City Jackson is no stranger to weight-cutting struggles — he only recently realized ketchup has sugar in it, he said — but the veteran fighter has no such worries now. He hadn’t even weighed himself in two weeks before his bout, and he munched on chicken skewers before his fight-week news conference.Jackson and Sonnen get along well, but Sonnen still managed to get in an early jab at his thicker opponent: “I agreed to fight at heavyweight, not superheavyweight!”For Coker, there were actual hurt feelings to smooth as well.Sonnen and Jackson are being showcased in the main event after former UFC star Rory MacDonald takes on welterweight champion Douglas Lima for the title. MacDonald had thought he was in the main event until last week.“I was disappointed when I heard about it,” MacDonald said. “I was bummed out. I was a little bit hurt. It didn’t affect my sponsorships, but I felt upset. I just put it out of my mind. These are the moves they have to make. I have a job to do, and their job is to make their business successful.”Bellator 192 is the first event since promotion owner Viacom officially rebranded the Spike network as the Paramount Network on Thursday. While MacDonald and Lima are among the world’s best handful of fighters at 170 pounds, Jackson and Sonnen are stars with far more name recognition, and executives from Viacom understand what draws viewers to this promotion.When asked if he was concerned about the rest of his roster’s reaction to Bellator’s decision to showcase heavyweights in all of their tournament bouts, Coker laughed.“I don’t think they’ll have any problem cashing those checks on Monday,” he said. Kammuri turning to super typhoon less likely but possible — Pagasa View commentslast_img read more

28 Oct

9 months ago​Liverpool defender Matip could return for Brighton

first_imgAbout the authorAnsser SadiqShare the loveHave your say ​Liverpool defender Matip could return for Brightonby Ansser Sadiq9 months agoSend to a friendShare the loveLiverpool could be about to get a boost as Joel Matip nears his return from injury.The centre-back is back in training, which means he is in contention to start against Brighton on Saturday.But the Reds will still be without Dejan Lovren, who is not yet fit.Asked about Lovren’s absence, Klopp said in his press conference: “I don’t know [how long]. Yes, it is serious otherwise he could play [against Brighton] but it’s not that serious.”I would expect him back maybe after Crystal Palace but I’m not sure we have to see.”Joel [Matip] trained for the first time yesterday with the team.”That is really good but we have to see. We have to take it day-by-day and see how he is doing but that is good for us of course.” last_img read more

28 Oct

24 days ago​Vertonghen coy on Tottenham plans as free agency looms

first_img​Vertonghen coy on Tottenham plans as free agency loomsby Freddie Taylor24 days agoSend to a friendShare the loveTottenham defender Jan Vertonghen is coy regarding his future at the club.The Belgian centre-back has been a stalwart for the club in the past few seasons.But with his contract running out at the end of the campaign, there is no sign of him renewing.And the 32-year-old is coy on his future.”I’d prefer not to go into that, but there is always movement there, of course,” Vertonghen said when quizzed about his future by reporters.”It’s my eighth season and I’m feeling great. Maybe the results didn’t come our way [at the start of the season], but they were tough away games and you always have to see how you bounce back from that.”[My future is] not a distraction. I’m very aware of my age. I feel fairly young. It doesn’t distract me. I want to play as many games as possible. I’m very ambitious and I feel I’ve got a few good years left at the top level.” TagsTransfersAbout the authorFreddie TaylorShare the loveHave your saylast_img read more

24 Oct

Growth in Mining and Quarrying Industry

first_img Director General, Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), Carol Coy, has reported that Jamaica’s mining and quarrying industry grew by 30.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018, mainly due to the reopening of the Jiuquan Iron and Steel Company (JISCO)/Alpart bauxite company in Nain, St. Elizabeth.She was speaking at STATIN’s press conference regarding the release of the March 2019 Consumer Price Index and January 2019 Labour Force Survey, at their offices on Cecelio Avenue in St. Andrew on April 16.Ms. Coy also announced that during the fourth quarter of 2018, the Jamaican economy grew by two per cent when compared to the same quarter of 2017.“This resulted from a 4.9 per cent growth in the goods-producing industries and one per cent increase in the services industries,” she said.The different sectors in the goods-producing industries grew during the fourth quarter with a 3.1 per cent increase in agriculture, forestry and fishing; 25 per cent in mining and quarrying; two per cent in manufacturing and 3.7 per cent in construction.“The agriculture, forestry and fishing industry was impacted by favourable weather conditions, which resulted in higher crop yields. The other agricultural crops subindustry, which includes animal farming, forestry and fishing, grew by 5.3 per cent. This was largely attributed to growth in root crops by 6.6 per cent; vegetables, 9.2 per cent; and animal farming, 4.1 per cent, due mainly to an increase in broiler production,” Ms. Coy noted.With regards to the manufacturing industry, she pointed out that the higher output was due largely to increases in subindustries food, beverages, tobacco and other manufactured goods.“Food, beverages and tobacco grew by two per cent, mainly influenced by increased production in meat and meat products, processing and preservation of fruits and vegetables, dairy products, bakery products and beverages,” Ms. Coy said.“Other manufacturing grew by two per cent, largely due to increased production in chemicals and chemical products, refined petroleum products and non-metallic mineral products,” she added. Director General, Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), Carol Coy, has reported that Jamaica’s mining and quarrying industry grew by 30.8 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2018, mainly due to the reopening of the Jiuquan Iron and Steel Company (JISCO)/Alpart bauxite company in Nain, St. Elizabeth. She was speaking at STATIN’s press conference regarding the release of the March 2019 Consumer Price Index and January 2019 Labour Force Survey, at their offices on Cecelio Avenue in St. Andrew on April 16. Ms. Coy also announced that during the fourth quarter of 2018, the Jamaican economy grew by two per cent when compared to the same quarter of 2017. Story Highlightslast_img read more

28 Sep

Louisville Favored in Final Four but Wichita State Could Become Unlikeliest Champion

This year’s N.C.A.A. tournament has not featured all that many great games — with some exceptions, like Michigan’s come-from-behind win against Kansas on Friday. The flip side is that the four teams that remain have all played exceptionally well, often dominating their opponents.Louisville won its first four games by an average of 22 points — the same margin by which it beat Duke on Sunday. Syracuse has won by 20 points, on average. Michigan’s margin of victory has averaged 16 points, despite the close call against Kansas. Even Wichita State, which has a chance to become the most poorly seeded team ever to win the tournament (and probably the least likely, statistically), has won its games by an average of 11 points.What follows is an overview of the four teams that remain — how their odds have evolved through the tournament and what their chances look like now.LOUISVILLE CARDINALSProbability of reaching Final Four before tournament began: 52.9 percentChance of winning tournament before tournament began: 22.7 percentChance of winning tournament before Round of 16: 32.4 percentChance of winning tournament now: 55.0 percentLouisville began the tournament as the nominal front-runner, with a 22.7 percent chance of winning the title according to the FiveThirtyEight model. Its odds increased sharply after its first two games and have continued to rise after wins against Oregon and Duke, and now stand at 55 percent.This is despite the gruesome injury suffered by the sophomore guard Kevin Ware on Sunday, which will affect Louisville’s depth. Ware had averaged just 17 minutes per game for the Cardinals, but he was productive when he played, shooting efficiently and averaging more than one steal per game despite the limited playing time. The FiveThirtyEight formula, which adjusts for player injuries, estimates that Louisville’s chances of winning the tournament would be closer to 57 percent (rather than 55 percent) if Ware were healthy. The intangible impact of the injury is obviously harder to gauge — especially after the Cardinals’ emotional second-half surge against Duke on Sunday.But there is little reason to doubt that Louisville is the favorite. Wichita State, its opponent in the national semifinal, is dangerous enough — but a favorable opponent for the Cardinals compared with Ohio State or Gonzaga. (The FiveThirtyEight model gives Louisville an 85 percent probability of beating Wichita State, which would translate to its being a 10 1/2-point favorite in the Las Vegas point spread.) Another bonus is that Louisville is the closest of the four remaining teams to Atlanta, the site of the Final Four games, and has had little travel throughout the tournament, which should help to ensure that it is well-rested physically under emotionally trying circumstances.MICHIGAN WOLVERINESProbability of reaching Final Four before tournament began: 12.7 percentChance of winning tournament before tournament began: 2.4 percentChance of winning tournament before Round of 16: 3.8 percent.Chance of winning tournament now: 21.2 percentThe FiveThirtyEight model viewed Michigan as underrated – but it thought that was even more true of Florida, and so had the Gators favored to win the South region. Instead, Michigan blew Florida out on Sunday.Still, Michigan provides some evidence for the hypothesis that the way a team finishes its regular season is not all that important — especially when one fails to account for changes to its strength of schedule. Michigan did not play an especially tough out-of-conference schedule this season, helping it go 13-0 in nonconference play. But the Big Ten was brutally competitive, and most of Michigan’s toughest games were stacked in the second half of its schedule. It’s not clear that Michigan played any worse down the stretch as much as it faced some tougher opponents.Michigan will present a clash of styles against Syracuse, and potentially Louisville. The Wolverines rate as having the best offense in college basketball, according to Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, whereas the Orange and the Cardinals have dominated defensively. Michigan enters the semifinal as essentially even-money against Syracuse (the FiveThirtyEight model gives Michigan a 51.9 percent chance of winning). But the score isn’t necessarily guaranteed to be close: the Wolverines’ reliance on the 3-point shot could yield a blowout or an embarrassment depending on their accuracy from behind the arc.SYRACUSE ORANGEProbability of reaching Final Four before tournament began: 11.7 percentChance of winning tournament before tournament began: 2.0 percentChance of winning tournament before Round of 16: 4.8 percent.Chance of winning tournament now: 19.0 percentWe’ve found that in contrast to how a team plays in the late stages of the regular season, how well it adapts to tournament conditions does have some predictive power. Hence, the FiveThirtyEight model increased Syracuse’s chances considerably after its record-setting opening-round win against Montana, and after its subsequent solid play against California, Indiana and Marquette.The catch is that the other teams in the Final Four have also played so well that it isn’t clear that you would pick Syracuse even if you were determined to choose the hot hand.WICHITA STATE SHOCKERSProbability of reaching Final Four before tournament began: 1.3 percentChance of winning tournament before tournament began: 0.08 percentChance of winning tournament before Round of 16: 1.2 percentChance of winning tournament now: 4.7 percentThe FiveThirtyEight model gave Wichita State only a 1.3 percent chance of reaching the Final Four before the tournament began, or about 75-to-1 odds against. Does that imply that the Shockers’ having reached the Final Four represents a once-every-75-year event –about as rare as Halley’s comet?Actually, the math is a little bit more complicated than that. There are four regions, and in each one, there are a number of long-shot teams, so there are a lot of opportunities every year for someone to defy the odds. Instead, our pretournament model suggested that there was about a 16 percent chance (roughly 1-in-6) that Wichita State or any of the other 37 teams with under a 2 percent chance of reaching the Final Four would do so.Some of the historical cases of teams that defied even longer odds are well-known. Pennsylvania, in 1979, overcame what we estimate were 500-to-1 odds against reaching the Final Four — while Virginia Commonwealth in 2011 was about an 800-to-1 underdog.However, Wichita State’s accomplishment holds up well against some other Cinderella teams, including Louisiana State in 1986 and George Mason in 2006, both of which made the Final Four as No. 11 seeds. Wichita State was a No. 9 seed, and a reasonably good one. The problem is that being a No. 9 seed is probably more difficult than being a No. 11. A No. 9 seed will almost certainly have to defeat a No. 1 seed in its second game (as Wichita State did against Gonzaga) – eliminating the chance of getting lucky because the favorite gets knocked out early. In addition, Wichita State beat a very tough No. 8 seed, Pittsburgh, and a very tough No. 2, Ohio State — and the Shockers have made some of these wins look easy.The issue, as is the case for Syracuse, is that the accomplishments for the other three Final Four teams have been just as impressive — and they began with considerably better regular-season résumés than Wichita State. So the FiveThirtyEight model gives the Shockers only about a 5 percent chance of winning out.But what if they do it? The initial model gave Wichita State only about a 0.08 percent chance of winning the tournament, or about 1,200-to-1 odds against. If the Shockers win the tournament, they would probably qualify as the least-likely champions in history — displacing the 1985 Villanova Wildcats, who won as a No. 8 seed and faced a somewhat more favorable draw.A version of this article appears in print on 04/02/2013, on page B9 of the NewYork edition with the headline: Four Dominant Teams, With One Standout.,This year’s N.C.A.A. tournament has not featured all that many great games — with some exceptions, like Michigan’s come-from-behind win against Kansas on Friday. The flip side is that the four teams that remain have all played exceptionally well, often dominating their opponents.Louisville won its first four games by an average of 22 points — the same margin by which it beat Duke on Sunday. Syracuse has won by 20 points, on average. Michigan’s margin of victory has averaged 16 points, despite the close call against Kansas. Even Wichita State, which has a chance to become the most poorly seeded team ever to win the tournament (and probably the least likely, statistically), has won its games by an average of 11 points.What follows is an overview of the four teams that remain — how their odds have evolved through the tournament and what their chances look like now.LOUISVILLE CARDINALSProbability of reaching Final Four before tournament began: 52.9 percentChance of winning tournament before tournament began: 22.7 percentChance of winning tournament before Round of 16: 32.4 percentChance of winning tournament now: 55.0 percentLouisville began the tournament as the nominal front-runner, with a 22.7 percent chance of winning the title according to the FiveThirtyEight model. Its odds increased sharply after its first two games and have continued to rise after wins against Oregon and Duke, and now stand at 55 percent.This is despite the gruesome injury suffered by the sophomore guard Kevin Ware on Sunday, which will affect Louisville’s depth. Ware had averaged just 17 minutes per game for the Cardinals, but he was productive when he played, shooting efficiently and averaging more than one steal per game despite the limited playing time. The FiveThirtyEight formula, which adjusts for player injuries, estimates that Louisville’s chances of winning the tournament would be closer to 57 percent (rather than 55 percent) if Ware were healthy. The intangible impact of the injury is obviously harder to gauge — especially after the Cardinals’ emotional second-half surge against Duke on Sunday.But there is little reason to doubt that Louisville is the favorite. Wichita State, its opponent in the national semifinal, is dangerous enough — but a favorable opponent for the Cardinals compared with Ohio State or Gonzaga. (The FiveThirtyEight model gives Louisville an 85 percent probability of beating Wichita State, which would translate to its being a 10 1/2-point favorite in the Las Vegas point spread.) Another bonus is that Louisville is the closest of the four remaining teams to Atlanta, the site of the Final Four games, and has had little travel throughout the tournament, which should help to ensure that it is well-rested physically under emotionally trying circumstances.MICHIGAN WOLVERINESProbability of reaching Final Four before tournament began: 12.7 percentChance of winning tournament before tournament began: 2.4 percentChance of winning tournament before Round of 16: 3.8 percent.Chance of winning tournament now: 21.2 percentThe FiveThirtyEight model viewed Michigan as underrated – but it thought that was even more true of Florida, and so had the Gators favored to win the South region. Instead, Michigan blew Florida out on Sunday.Still, Michigan provides some evidence for the hypothesis that the way a team finishes its regular season is not all that important — especially when one fails to account for changes to its strength of schedule. Michigan did not play an especially tough out-of-conference schedule this season, helping it go 13-0 in nonconference play. But the Big Ten was brutally competitive, and most of Michigan’s toughest games were stacked in the second half of its schedule. It’s not clear that Michigan played any worse down the stretch as much as it faced some tougher opponents.Michigan will present a clash of styles against Syracuse, and potentially Louisville. The Wolverines rate as having the best offense in college basketball, according to Ken Pomeroy’s rankings, whereas the Orange and the Cardinals have dominated defensively. Michigan enters the semifinal as essentially even-money against Syracuse (the FiveThirtyEight model gives Michigan a 51.9 percent chance of winning). But the score isn’t necessarily guaranteed to be close: the Wolverines’ reliance on the 3-point shot could yield a blowout or an embarrassment depending on their accuracy from behind the arc.SYRACUSE ORANGEProbability of reaching Final Four before tournament began: 11.7 percentChance of winning tournament before tournament began: 2.0 percentChance of winning tournament before Round of 16: 4.8 percent.Chance of winning tournament now: 19.0 percentWe’ve found that in contrast to how a team plays in the late stages of the regular season, how well it adapts to tournament conditions does have some predictive power. Hence, the FiveThirtyEight model increased Syracuse’s chances considerably after its record-setting opening-round win against Montana, and after its subsequent solid play against California, Indiana and Marquette.The catch is that the other teams in the Final Four have also played so well that it isn’t clear that you would pick Syracuse even if you were determined to choose the hot hand.WICHITA STATE SHOCKERSProbability of reaching Final Four before tournament began: 1.3 percentChance of winning tournament before tournament began: 0.08 percentChance of winning tournament before Round of 16: 1.2 percentChance of winning tournament now: 4.7 percentThe FiveThirtyEight model gave Wichita State only a 1.3 percent chance of reaching the Final Four before the tournament began, or about 75-to-1 odds against. Does that imply that the Shockers’ having reached the Final Four represents a once-every-75-year event –about as rare as Halley’s comet?Actually, the math is a little bit more complicated than that. There are four regions, and in each one, there are a number of long-shot teams, so there are a lot of opportunities every year for someone to defy the odds. Instead, our pretournament model suggested that there was about a 16 percent chance (roughly 1-in-6) that Wichita State or any of the other 37 teams with under a 2 percent chance of reaching the Final Four would do so.Some of the historical cases of teams that defied even longer odds are well-known. Pennsylvania, in 1979, overcame what we estimate were 500-to-1 odds against reaching the Final Four — while Virginia Commonwealth in 2011 was about an 800-to-1 underdog.However, Wichita State’s accomplishment holds up well against some other Cinderella teams, including Louisiana State in 1986 and George Mason in 2006, both of which made the Final Four as No. 11 seeds. Wichita State was a No. 9 seed, and a reasonably good one. The problem is that being a No. 9 seed is probably more difficult than being a No. 11. A No. 9 seed will almost certainly have to defeat a No. 1 seed in its second game (as Wichita State did against Gonzaga) – eliminating the chance of getting lucky because the favorite gets knocked out early. In addition, Wichita State beat a very tough No. 8 seed, Pittsburgh, and a very tough No. 2, Ohio State — and the Shockers have made some of these wins look easy.The issue, as is the case for Syracuse, is that the accomplishments for the other three Final Four teams have been just as impressive — and they began with considerably better regular-season résumés than Wichita State. So the FiveThirtyEight model gives the Shockers only about a 5 percent chance of winning out.But what if they do it? The initial model gave Wichita State only about a 0.08 percent chance of winning the tournament, or about 1,200-to-1 odds against. If the Shockers win the tournament, they would probably qualify as the least-likely champions in history — displacing the 1985 Villanova Wildcats, who won as a No. 8 seed and faced a somewhat more favorable draw.A version of this article appears in print on 04/02/2013, on page B9 of the NewYork edition with the headline: Four Dominant Teams, With One Standout. read more

18 Sep

Hamsik confirms China offer

first_imgNapoli captain Marek Hamsik has confirmed that he has received an offer from China and that he has told club president Aurelio De Laurentiis about itThe Slovakian midfielder is expected to leave the Stadio San Paolo for this summer’s transfer window after having previously admitted to being tempted by the prospect of a big-money move to China.The arrival of new head coach Carlo Ancelotti does not appear to have improved things for Hamsik, who could break the club record of the most games played at Napoli for next season.Speaking at a charity event in his native Slovakia, the 30-year-old confirmed that he has been in talks in regards to a move to the Chinese Super League.Cristiano Ronaldo, JuventusSerie A Betting: Match-day 3 Stuart Heath – September 14, 2019 Considering there is a number of perfect starts so early in the Serie A season, as well as a few surprisingly not-so perfect ones….“I’m still a Napoli player, for now nothing has changed,” said Hamsik, via Football-Italia.“It’s true that I told the President [Aurelio De Laurentiis] that there’s this opportunity, but at the moment there’s nothing new.”However, Napoli are reportedly asking around €30m for their captain.A fee of this magnitude would mean that a Chinese club would have to pay €60m due to the 100% tax charge they receive for not using the money towards player development in their own country.last_img read more